← Ascent Akihabara

Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2

at Ascent Akihabara

decks
21 (3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
198 100-80-18
overall winrate
55.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.8% avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
52.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352 · median 1399 · range 1014–1584 (21 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1204 Q3 1418 1736
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 15.6% 33 16-14-3 53.0% 52.7% 48.9% -0.4
Wind Seiryuu 9.1% 17 8-8-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.7% +1.1
Fire Crux Mage 8.8% 22 7-12-3 38.6% 40.4% 40.6% -3.5
Wind Shadowstrike 6.6% 8 5-2-1 68.8% 62.5% 65.9% +7.6
Fire Suzaku 5.3% 14 7-7-0 50.0% 50.0% 54.0% +1.6
Water Genbu 4.4% 10 4-4-2 50.0% 50.0% 48.3% -0.7
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 9 4-4-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.1% -1.8
Fire Aggro 3.7% 7 6-1-0 85.7% 72.7% 70.8% +10.4
Water Aetherwing 3.7% 9 5-3-1 61.1% 57.7% 61.2% +5.2
Wind Razorgale 3.1% 7 1-5-1 21.4% 31.8% 29.8% -10.2
Fire Crux Merlin 2.9% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 65.3% +8.8
Water Allies 2.8% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 57.3% +4.2
Fire Oblation 2.2% 8 6-2-0 75.0% 66.7% 69.5% +9.3
Water Fractal 2.1% 8 2-5-1 31.2% 37.5% 43.4% -3.2
Wind Arcane 2.1% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 86.5% +23.3
Fire Exia 1.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 37.5% -9.3
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.0% +1.9
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 73.2% +22.3
Wind Allies 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.3% +10.1
Water Umbra Guardian 1.5% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 54.1% +2.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 58.0% +6.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 60.7% +10.2
Fire Suited 0.9% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 46.9% -2.0
Wind Luxem Zander 0.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.0% +12.8
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.7% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 33.9% -9.3
Fire Slimes 0.6% 0
Slimes 0.6% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.4% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.5% +16.8
Water Tera Mage 0.4% 0
Fire Arcane 0.3% 0
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 0
Horse and Taxes 0.3% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.3% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.3% 0
Water Neos 0.3% 0
Wind Ciel 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.3% +21.3
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.2% +22.7
Wind Slice & Dice 0.3% 0
Wind Vanitas 0.3% 0
Fire Byakko 0.1% 0
Fire Neos 0.1% 0
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.1% 0
Fire Shadowstrike 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 66.3% +26.1
Fire Tera Mage 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.6% +5.7
Water Beast 0.1% 0
Water Byakko 0.1% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.1% 0
Water Kongming 0.1% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.1% 0
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.1% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.1% 0
Wind Byakko 0.1% 0
Wind Crux Mage 0.1% 0
Wind Neos 0.1% 0
Wind Umbra Ciel 0.1% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.1% 0
Wind Zander 0.1% 0
Decklists · 21 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 2 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 2 0
Dilu, Auspicious Charger +0.50 1 0 0
Reconnaissance Scout -0.50 0 1 1
Expose Darkness -0.50 0 1 0
Concealed Marksman -0.50 0 1 1
Evasive Maneuvers +0.50 1 0 1
Staggering Strike +0.50 1 0 1
Scout the Land -0.50 0 1 0
Draught of Stamina -0.50 0 1 1
Stifling Trap +0.50 1 0 1
Coronation Ceremony -0.50 0 1 1
Tempest Downfall -0.50 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -0.50 0 1 1
Ensnaring Fumes +0.50 1 0 0
Steady Sharpshooter -0.50 0 1 0
Favorable Winds +0.50 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +0.50 1 0 0
Veiled Dash +0.50 1 0 0
Galewind Scout -0.50 0 1 0
Dodge Roll -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate +0.50 1 0 1
Tariff Ring -0.50 0 1 1
Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor -0.50 0 1 1
Safeguard Paragon +0.50 1 0 0
Eye of Argus +0.50 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds +0.50 1 0 0
Deflecting Edge -0.50 0 1 0
Verdigris Decree +0.50 1 0 0
Death Essence Amulet +0.50 1 0 0
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper +0.00 1 1 0
Scatter Essence +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/38740/archetypes/Wind Wakeup Combo